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US Government Faced with 1.6 Billion Pounds of Cranberry Surplus


The USDA has just announced a partial cranberry buyout to contend with the surplus from 2013 and 2014

The cranberry surplus totals 16 million barrels, or 1.6 billion pounds.

The United States is currently “bogged down with too many cranberries,” reports The Takeaway in a genius headline that deserves to be noticed — but I digress.

The federal government is currently dealing with a cranberry surplus, from unsold fruit from 2013 to this year’s overwhelming crop, totaling 16 million barrels, or 1.6 billion pounds of cranberries.

In order to deal what is nearly a 100-percent surplus, the USDA has recently announced efforts to distribute the excess to food banks and school around the country. The organization will buy approximately 680,000 barrels of cranberries “in the form of juice, sauce, and dried berries” for distribution, reports The Associated Press.

That will total approximately $55 million in cranberries, in addition to the $32 million the agency had planned to spend.

Farmers belonging to the Ocean Spray cooperative will receive an estimated 45 cents per pound as the cranberries are sold, while independent growers are expected to make between 10 and 15 cents per pound for fruit sold for processed products.


REGIONS

JOHANNESBURG WHILE most of the rest of Africa struggles to feed itself, South Africa builds jet fighters, computers and, some say, even nuclear weapons. Yet 100 years after the first strike on a rocky ridge near here, the kingpin of Africa's most sophisticated economy is still gold.

In 1978 with a weak American dollar pushing the price up by $50 an ounce, to $225 at year's end, South Africa reaped a bonanza. Its 35 active gold mines, producing close to 700 tons of the metal, 50 percent of world production, earned more than $4.1 billion, up by more than $1 billion over the record set in 1977.

Although gold accounted for no more than a third of the country's exports in 1978, down from close to half earlier in the decade, it made a major difference to the nation's shaky economic health. Refined into 200‐pound ingots and flown under massive security to Switzerland, which acts as middleman, it made possible a trading surplus of better than $1.6 billion in 1978, another record for a country that historically has run stubstantial trade deficits.

By early this year, economists, encouraged by modest reflationary steps taken by the Government, were predicting a growth‐rate of better than 3 percent in 1979, on top of perhaps 2.5 percent in 1978. Looking further ahead, some analysts hoped that the recovery might gather even a greater pace and end a recessionary period that began in 1974, when a fading gold price and a quadrupling of the country's oil‐import bill put an abrupt halt to the greatest boom since this city was a licentious mining camp.

Among less sanguine observers, the gold boom was seen as the gilded edge of a gathering storm. The most immediate problem was the turmoil in Iran, where the Shah's opponents threatened to force an end to a relationship that has provided South Africa, rich in every strategic resource but oil, with more than 90 percent of the fuel needed to power its industry and transport. Officials are predicting a $350 million jump in the cost of South Africa's oil imports, more than $1.7 billion in 1979, and sharp fuel rationing is expected if the new Iranian Government carries out threats to cut off its oil shipments here.

With an 18‐month oil supply stashed in unused mineshafts around the country and a $3 billion oilfrom‐coal plant scheduled to produce a quarter of the country's needs when it enters full production in the 1980's,.an Iranian oil embargo would not bring the country grinding to a halt. But the loss might prove difficult to make up, if not ultimately impossible, the face of an unofficial boycott that other oil‐producing countries have observed since the Yom Kippur War of 1973‐74 in which South Africa supported Israel against the Arab nations.

At the least, the Iranian upheaval pushed back the prospect of South Africa ever again reaching the rates of growth achieved earlier in the decade, when 7 percent and 8 percent were regarded as normal. Without expansion on that scale, the economy will be unable to provide the jobs and housing required to accommodate a fast‐growing black population, which • has borne the brunt of the economic stagnation of recent years in the form of rising of unemployment and shrinking living standards.

Statistics on the plight of blacks are one of the many things in dispute between the Government and critics of its racial policies. But many reputable economists have estimated black unemployment at 1.5 million or more, in a nation with a formal workforce of 6 million. In black townships like Soweto, outside Johannesburg, the figure translates into rising crime and malnutrition and, most threatening of all for the white minority, a growing resentment against the pol itical and economic structure.

Many analysts believe it may already be too late to reform the system and head off a violent showdown in which black militants ultimately must triumph. But as Harry F. Oppenheimer pointed out when he addressed the International Monetary Fund's conference in Mexico City last year, revolution is likely to become inevitable if the economy cannot generate the wealth needed if a black population of 35 million — nearly double the current figure of 18 million — is to be fed, clothed and housed by the year 2000.

Mr. Oppenheimer, the gold and diamond magnate who is chairman of the Anglo American Corporation and of de Beers Consolidated Mines, asserted to the international financial community that it was his view that more investment in South African mines and industry, not less, is the way to promote a better life for blacks and an evolution toward a multi‐racial democracy.

“Those who seek to bring about change in South Africa's racial attitudes and policies by cutting us off from the capital markets of the world should understand clearly that in practice, if not in intent, they are aiming at change by violence,” he said.

During last year, the net outflow of capital that developed after the black riots in Soweto and other black townships in 1976 continued at a debilitating rate. Nearly $900 million in short‐term capital left the country in the first three quarters alone — $80 million more than in the comparable period in 1977. With a net outflow of an additional $300 million in long‐term capital, some of it in the form of loan repayments that had been deferred in the worst of the recession, the total loss to the economy in nine months was well over $1 billion. In 1974, the last boom year, nearly $900 million flowed into the country in the form of investments and loans.

Against that background, the boom in gold prices marked the difference between a slide further into recession and a modest turnaround. 0

Most skilled Rhodesians, such as the mining engineer shown, are white, but many are leaving the country.


REGIONS

JOHANNESBURG WHILE most of the rest of Africa struggles to feed itself, South Africa builds jet fighters, computers and, some say, even nuclear weapons. Yet 100 years after the first strike on a rocky ridge near here, the kingpin of Africa's most sophisticated economy is still gold.

In 1978 with a weak American dollar pushing the price up by $50 an ounce, to $225 at year's end, South Africa reaped a bonanza. Its 35 active gold mines, producing close to 700 tons of the metal, 50 percent of world production, earned more than $4.1 billion, up by more than $1 billion over the record set in 1977.

Although gold accounted for no more than a third of the country's exports in 1978, down from close to half earlier in the decade, it made a major difference to the nation's shaky economic health. Refined into 200‐pound ingots and flown under massive security to Switzerland, which acts as middleman, it made possible a trading surplus of better than $1.6 billion in 1978, another record for a country that historically has run stubstantial trade deficits.

By early this year, economists, encouraged by modest reflationary steps taken by the Government, were predicting a growth‐rate of better than 3 percent in 1979, on top of perhaps 2.5 percent in 1978. Looking further ahead, some analysts hoped that the recovery might gather even a greater pace and end a recessionary period that began in 1974, when a fading gold price and a quadrupling of the country's oil‐import bill put an abrupt halt to the greatest boom since this city was a licentious mining camp.

Among less sanguine observers, the gold boom was seen as the gilded edge of a gathering storm. The most immediate problem was the turmoil in Iran, where the Shah's opponents threatened to force an end to a relationship that has provided South Africa, rich in every strategic resource but oil, with more than 90 percent of the fuel needed to power its industry and transport. Officials are predicting a $350 million jump in the cost of South Africa's oil imports, more than $1.7 billion in 1979, and sharp fuel rationing is expected if the new Iranian Government carries out threats to cut off its oil shipments here.

With an 18‐month oil supply stashed in unused mineshafts around the country and a $3 billion oilfrom‐coal plant scheduled to produce a quarter of the country's needs when it enters full production in the 1980's,.an Iranian oil embargo would not bring the country grinding to a halt. But the loss might prove difficult to make up, if not ultimately impossible, the face of an unofficial boycott that other oil‐producing countries have observed since the Yom Kippur War of 1973‐74 in which South Africa supported Israel against the Arab nations.

At the least, the Iranian upheaval pushed back the prospect of South Africa ever again reaching the rates of growth achieved earlier in the decade, when 7 percent and 8 percent were regarded as normal. Without expansion on that scale, the economy will be unable to provide the jobs and housing required to accommodate a fast‐growing black population, which • has borne the brunt of the economic stagnation of recent years in the form of rising of unemployment and shrinking living standards.

Statistics on the plight of blacks are one of the many things in dispute between the Government and critics of its racial policies. But many reputable economists have estimated black unemployment at 1.5 million or more, in a nation with a formal workforce of 6 million. In black townships like Soweto, outside Johannesburg, the figure translates into rising crime and malnutrition and, most threatening of all for the white minority, a growing resentment against the pol itical and economic structure.

Many analysts believe it may already be too late to reform the system and head off a violent showdown in which black militants ultimately must triumph. But as Harry F. Oppenheimer pointed out when he addressed the International Monetary Fund's conference in Mexico City last year, revolution is likely to become inevitable if the economy cannot generate the wealth needed if a black population of 35 million — nearly double the current figure of 18 million — is to be fed, clothed and housed by the year 2000.

Mr. Oppenheimer, the gold and diamond magnate who is chairman of the Anglo American Corporation and of de Beers Consolidated Mines, asserted to the international financial community that it was his view that more investment in South African mines and industry, not less, is the way to promote a better life for blacks and an evolution toward a multi‐racial democracy.

“Those who seek to bring about change in South Africa's racial attitudes and policies by cutting us off from the capital markets of the world should understand clearly that in practice, if not in intent, they are aiming at change by violence,” he said.

During last year, the net outflow of capital that developed after the black riots in Soweto and other black townships in 1976 continued at a debilitating rate. Nearly $900 million in short‐term capital left the country in the first three quarters alone — $80 million more than in the comparable period in 1977. With a net outflow of an additional $300 million in long‐term capital, some of it in the form of loan repayments that had been deferred in the worst of the recession, the total loss to the economy in nine months was well over $1 billion. In 1974, the last boom year, nearly $900 million flowed into the country in the form of investments and loans.

Against that background, the boom in gold prices marked the difference between a slide further into recession and a modest turnaround. 0

Most skilled Rhodesians, such as the mining engineer shown, are white, but many are leaving the country.


REGIONS

JOHANNESBURG WHILE most of the rest of Africa struggles to feed itself, South Africa builds jet fighters, computers and, some say, even nuclear weapons. Yet 100 years after the first strike on a rocky ridge near here, the kingpin of Africa's most sophisticated economy is still gold.

In 1978 with a weak American dollar pushing the price up by $50 an ounce, to $225 at year's end, South Africa reaped a bonanza. Its 35 active gold mines, producing close to 700 tons of the metal, 50 percent of world production, earned more than $4.1 billion, up by more than $1 billion over the record set in 1977.

Although gold accounted for no more than a third of the country's exports in 1978, down from close to half earlier in the decade, it made a major difference to the nation's shaky economic health. Refined into 200‐pound ingots and flown under massive security to Switzerland, which acts as middleman, it made possible a trading surplus of better than $1.6 billion in 1978, another record for a country that historically has run stubstantial trade deficits.

By early this year, economists, encouraged by modest reflationary steps taken by the Government, were predicting a growth‐rate of better than 3 percent in 1979, on top of perhaps 2.5 percent in 1978. Looking further ahead, some analysts hoped that the recovery might gather even a greater pace and end a recessionary period that began in 1974, when a fading gold price and a quadrupling of the country's oil‐import bill put an abrupt halt to the greatest boom since this city was a licentious mining camp.

Among less sanguine observers, the gold boom was seen as the gilded edge of a gathering storm. The most immediate problem was the turmoil in Iran, where the Shah's opponents threatened to force an end to a relationship that has provided South Africa, rich in every strategic resource but oil, with more than 90 percent of the fuel needed to power its industry and transport. Officials are predicting a $350 million jump in the cost of South Africa's oil imports, more than $1.7 billion in 1979, and sharp fuel rationing is expected if the new Iranian Government carries out threats to cut off its oil shipments here.

With an 18‐month oil supply stashed in unused mineshafts around the country and a $3 billion oilfrom‐coal plant scheduled to produce a quarter of the country's needs when it enters full production in the 1980's,.an Iranian oil embargo would not bring the country grinding to a halt. But the loss might prove difficult to make up, if not ultimately impossible, the face of an unofficial boycott that other oil‐producing countries have observed since the Yom Kippur War of 1973‐74 in which South Africa supported Israel against the Arab nations.

At the least, the Iranian upheaval pushed back the prospect of South Africa ever again reaching the rates of growth achieved earlier in the decade, when 7 percent and 8 percent were regarded as normal. Without expansion on that scale, the economy will be unable to provide the jobs and housing required to accommodate a fast‐growing black population, which • has borne the brunt of the economic stagnation of recent years in the form of rising of unemployment and shrinking living standards.

Statistics on the plight of blacks are one of the many things in dispute between the Government and critics of its racial policies. But many reputable economists have estimated black unemployment at 1.5 million or more, in a nation with a formal workforce of 6 million. In black townships like Soweto, outside Johannesburg, the figure translates into rising crime and malnutrition and, most threatening of all for the white minority, a growing resentment against the pol itical and economic structure.

Many analysts believe it may already be too late to reform the system and head off a violent showdown in which black militants ultimately must triumph. But as Harry F. Oppenheimer pointed out when he addressed the International Monetary Fund's conference in Mexico City last year, revolution is likely to become inevitable if the economy cannot generate the wealth needed if a black population of 35 million — nearly double the current figure of 18 million — is to be fed, clothed and housed by the year 2000.

Mr. Oppenheimer, the gold and diamond magnate who is chairman of the Anglo American Corporation and of de Beers Consolidated Mines, asserted to the international financial community that it was his view that more investment in South African mines and industry, not less, is the way to promote a better life for blacks and an evolution toward a multi‐racial democracy.

“Those who seek to bring about change in South Africa's racial attitudes and policies by cutting us off from the capital markets of the world should understand clearly that in practice, if not in intent, they are aiming at change by violence,” he said.

During last year, the net outflow of capital that developed after the black riots in Soweto and other black townships in 1976 continued at a debilitating rate. Nearly $900 million in short‐term capital left the country in the first three quarters alone — $80 million more than in the comparable period in 1977. With a net outflow of an additional $300 million in long‐term capital, some of it in the form of loan repayments that had been deferred in the worst of the recession, the total loss to the economy in nine months was well over $1 billion. In 1974, the last boom year, nearly $900 million flowed into the country in the form of investments and loans.

Against that background, the boom in gold prices marked the difference between a slide further into recession and a modest turnaround. 0

Most skilled Rhodesians, such as the mining engineer shown, are white, but many are leaving the country.


REGIONS

JOHANNESBURG WHILE most of the rest of Africa struggles to feed itself, South Africa builds jet fighters, computers and, some say, even nuclear weapons. Yet 100 years after the first strike on a rocky ridge near here, the kingpin of Africa's most sophisticated economy is still gold.

In 1978 with a weak American dollar pushing the price up by $50 an ounce, to $225 at year's end, South Africa reaped a bonanza. Its 35 active gold mines, producing close to 700 tons of the metal, 50 percent of world production, earned more than $4.1 billion, up by more than $1 billion over the record set in 1977.

Although gold accounted for no more than a third of the country's exports in 1978, down from close to half earlier in the decade, it made a major difference to the nation's shaky economic health. Refined into 200‐pound ingots and flown under massive security to Switzerland, which acts as middleman, it made possible a trading surplus of better than $1.6 billion in 1978, another record for a country that historically has run stubstantial trade deficits.

By early this year, economists, encouraged by modest reflationary steps taken by the Government, were predicting a growth‐rate of better than 3 percent in 1979, on top of perhaps 2.5 percent in 1978. Looking further ahead, some analysts hoped that the recovery might gather even a greater pace and end a recessionary period that began in 1974, when a fading gold price and a quadrupling of the country's oil‐import bill put an abrupt halt to the greatest boom since this city was a licentious mining camp.

Among less sanguine observers, the gold boom was seen as the gilded edge of a gathering storm. The most immediate problem was the turmoil in Iran, where the Shah's opponents threatened to force an end to a relationship that has provided South Africa, rich in every strategic resource but oil, with more than 90 percent of the fuel needed to power its industry and transport. Officials are predicting a $350 million jump in the cost of South Africa's oil imports, more than $1.7 billion in 1979, and sharp fuel rationing is expected if the new Iranian Government carries out threats to cut off its oil shipments here.

With an 18‐month oil supply stashed in unused mineshafts around the country and a $3 billion oilfrom‐coal plant scheduled to produce a quarter of the country's needs when it enters full production in the 1980's,.an Iranian oil embargo would not bring the country grinding to a halt. But the loss might prove difficult to make up, if not ultimately impossible, the face of an unofficial boycott that other oil‐producing countries have observed since the Yom Kippur War of 1973‐74 in which South Africa supported Israel against the Arab nations.

At the least, the Iranian upheaval pushed back the prospect of South Africa ever again reaching the rates of growth achieved earlier in the decade, when 7 percent and 8 percent were regarded as normal. Without expansion on that scale, the economy will be unable to provide the jobs and housing required to accommodate a fast‐growing black population, which • has borne the brunt of the economic stagnation of recent years in the form of rising of unemployment and shrinking living standards.

Statistics on the plight of blacks are one of the many things in dispute between the Government and critics of its racial policies. But many reputable economists have estimated black unemployment at 1.5 million or more, in a nation with a formal workforce of 6 million. In black townships like Soweto, outside Johannesburg, the figure translates into rising crime and malnutrition and, most threatening of all for the white minority, a growing resentment against the pol itical and economic structure.

Many analysts believe it may already be too late to reform the system and head off a violent showdown in which black militants ultimately must triumph. But as Harry F. Oppenheimer pointed out when he addressed the International Monetary Fund's conference in Mexico City last year, revolution is likely to become inevitable if the economy cannot generate the wealth needed if a black population of 35 million — nearly double the current figure of 18 million — is to be fed, clothed and housed by the year 2000.

Mr. Oppenheimer, the gold and diamond magnate who is chairman of the Anglo American Corporation and of de Beers Consolidated Mines, asserted to the international financial community that it was his view that more investment in South African mines and industry, not less, is the way to promote a better life for blacks and an evolution toward a multi‐racial democracy.

“Those who seek to bring about change in South Africa's racial attitudes and policies by cutting us off from the capital markets of the world should understand clearly that in practice, if not in intent, they are aiming at change by violence,” he said.

During last year, the net outflow of capital that developed after the black riots in Soweto and other black townships in 1976 continued at a debilitating rate. Nearly $900 million in short‐term capital left the country in the first three quarters alone — $80 million more than in the comparable period in 1977. With a net outflow of an additional $300 million in long‐term capital, some of it in the form of loan repayments that had been deferred in the worst of the recession, the total loss to the economy in nine months was well over $1 billion. In 1974, the last boom year, nearly $900 million flowed into the country in the form of investments and loans.

Against that background, the boom in gold prices marked the difference between a slide further into recession and a modest turnaround. 0

Most skilled Rhodesians, such as the mining engineer shown, are white, but many are leaving the country.


REGIONS

JOHANNESBURG WHILE most of the rest of Africa struggles to feed itself, South Africa builds jet fighters, computers and, some say, even nuclear weapons. Yet 100 years after the first strike on a rocky ridge near here, the kingpin of Africa's most sophisticated economy is still gold.

In 1978 with a weak American dollar pushing the price up by $50 an ounce, to $225 at year's end, South Africa reaped a bonanza. Its 35 active gold mines, producing close to 700 tons of the metal, 50 percent of world production, earned more than $4.1 billion, up by more than $1 billion over the record set in 1977.

Although gold accounted for no more than a third of the country's exports in 1978, down from close to half earlier in the decade, it made a major difference to the nation's shaky economic health. Refined into 200‐pound ingots and flown under massive security to Switzerland, which acts as middleman, it made possible a trading surplus of better than $1.6 billion in 1978, another record for a country that historically has run stubstantial trade deficits.

By early this year, economists, encouraged by modest reflationary steps taken by the Government, were predicting a growth‐rate of better than 3 percent in 1979, on top of perhaps 2.5 percent in 1978. Looking further ahead, some analysts hoped that the recovery might gather even a greater pace and end a recessionary period that began in 1974, when a fading gold price and a quadrupling of the country's oil‐import bill put an abrupt halt to the greatest boom since this city was a licentious mining camp.

Among less sanguine observers, the gold boom was seen as the gilded edge of a gathering storm. The most immediate problem was the turmoil in Iran, where the Shah's opponents threatened to force an end to a relationship that has provided South Africa, rich in every strategic resource but oil, with more than 90 percent of the fuel needed to power its industry and transport. Officials are predicting a $350 million jump in the cost of South Africa's oil imports, more than $1.7 billion in 1979, and sharp fuel rationing is expected if the new Iranian Government carries out threats to cut off its oil shipments here.

With an 18‐month oil supply stashed in unused mineshafts around the country and a $3 billion oilfrom‐coal plant scheduled to produce a quarter of the country's needs when it enters full production in the 1980's,.an Iranian oil embargo would not bring the country grinding to a halt. But the loss might prove difficult to make up, if not ultimately impossible, the face of an unofficial boycott that other oil‐producing countries have observed since the Yom Kippur War of 1973‐74 in which South Africa supported Israel against the Arab nations.

At the least, the Iranian upheaval pushed back the prospect of South Africa ever again reaching the rates of growth achieved earlier in the decade, when 7 percent and 8 percent were regarded as normal. Without expansion on that scale, the economy will be unable to provide the jobs and housing required to accommodate a fast‐growing black population, which • has borne the brunt of the economic stagnation of recent years in the form of rising of unemployment and shrinking living standards.

Statistics on the plight of blacks are one of the many things in dispute between the Government and critics of its racial policies. But many reputable economists have estimated black unemployment at 1.5 million or more, in a nation with a formal workforce of 6 million. In black townships like Soweto, outside Johannesburg, the figure translates into rising crime and malnutrition and, most threatening of all for the white minority, a growing resentment against the pol itical and economic structure.

Many analysts believe it may already be too late to reform the system and head off a violent showdown in which black militants ultimately must triumph. But as Harry F. Oppenheimer pointed out when he addressed the International Monetary Fund's conference in Mexico City last year, revolution is likely to become inevitable if the economy cannot generate the wealth needed if a black population of 35 million — nearly double the current figure of 18 million — is to be fed, clothed and housed by the year 2000.

Mr. Oppenheimer, the gold and diamond magnate who is chairman of the Anglo American Corporation and of de Beers Consolidated Mines, asserted to the international financial community that it was his view that more investment in South African mines and industry, not less, is the way to promote a better life for blacks and an evolution toward a multi‐racial democracy.

“Those who seek to bring about change in South Africa's racial attitudes and policies by cutting us off from the capital markets of the world should understand clearly that in practice, if not in intent, they are aiming at change by violence,” he said.

During last year, the net outflow of capital that developed after the black riots in Soweto and other black townships in 1976 continued at a debilitating rate. Nearly $900 million in short‐term capital left the country in the first three quarters alone — $80 million more than in the comparable period in 1977. With a net outflow of an additional $300 million in long‐term capital, some of it in the form of loan repayments that had been deferred in the worst of the recession, the total loss to the economy in nine months was well over $1 billion. In 1974, the last boom year, nearly $900 million flowed into the country in the form of investments and loans.

Against that background, the boom in gold prices marked the difference between a slide further into recession and a modest turnaround. 0

Most skilled Rhodesians, such as the mining engineer shown, are white, but many are leaving the country.


REGIONS

JOHANNESBURG WHILE most of the rest of Africa struggles to feed itself, South Africa builds jet fighters, computers and, some say, even nuclear weapons. Yet 100 years after the first strike on a rocky ridge near here, the kingpin of Africa's most sophisticated economy is still gold.

In 1978 with a weak American dollar pushing the price up by $50 an ounce, to $225 at year's end, South Africa reaped a bonanza. Its 35 active gold mines, producing close to 700 tons of the metal, 50 percent of world production, earned more than $4.1 billion, up by more than $1 billion over the record set in 1977.

Although gold accounted for no more than a third of the country's exports in 1978, down from close to half earlier in the decade, it made a major difference to the nation's shaky economic health. Refined into 200‐pound ingots and flown under massive security to Switzerland, which acts as middleman, it made possible a trading surplus of better than $1.6 billion in 1978, another record for a country that historically has run stubstantial trade deficits.

By early this year, economists, encouraged by modest reflationary steps taken by the Government, were predicting a growth‐rate of better than 3 percent in 1979, on top of perhaps 2.5 percent in 1978. Looking further ahead, some analysts hoped that the recovery might gather even a greater pace and end a recessionary period that began in 1974, when a fading gold price and a quadrupling of the country's oil‐import bill put an abrupt halt to the greatest boom since this city was a licentious mining camp.

Among less sanguine observers, the gold boom was seen as the gilded edge of a gathering storm. The most immediate problem was the turmoil in Iran, where the Shah's opponents threatened to force an end to a relationship that has provided South Africa, rich in every strategic resource but oil, with more than 90 percent of the fuel needed to power its industry and transport. Officials are predicting a $350 million jump in the cost of South Africa's oil imports, more than $1.7 billion in 1979, and sharp fuel rationing is expected if the new Iranian Government carries out threats to cut off its oil shipments here.

With an 18‐month oil supply stashed in unused mineshafts around the country and a $3 billion oilfrom‐coal plant scheduled to produce a quarter of the country's needs when it enters full production in the 1980's,.an Iranian oil embargo would not bring the country grinding to a halt. But the loss might prove difficult to make up, if not ultimately impossible, the face of an unofficial boycott that other oil‐producing countries have observed since the Yom Kippur War of 1973‐74 in which South Africa supported Israel against the Arab nations.

At the least, the Iranian upheaval pushed back the prospect of South Africa ever again reaching the rates of growth achieved earlier in the decade, when 7 percent and 8 percent were regarded as normal. Without expansion on that scale, the economy will be unable to provide the jobs and housing required to accommodate a fast‐growing black population, which • has borne the brunt of the economic stagnation of recent years in the form of rising of unemployment and shrinking living standards.

Statistics on the plight of blacks are one of the many things in dispute between the Government and critics of its racial policies. But many reputable economists have estimated black unemployment at 1.5 million or more, in a nation with a formal workforce of 6 million. In black townships like Soweto, outside Johannesburg, the figure translates into rising crime and malnutrition and, most threatening of all for the white minority, a growing resentment against the pol itical and economic structure.

Many analysts believe it may already be too late to reform the system and head off a violent showdown in which black militants ultimately must triumph. But as Harry F. Oppenheimer pointed out when he addressed the International Monetary Fund's conference in Mexico City last year, revolution is likely to become inevitable if the economy cannot generate the wealth needed if a black population of 35 million — nearly double the current figure of 18 million — is to be fed, clothed and housed by the year 2000.

Mr. Oppenheimer, the gold and diamond magnate who is chairman of the Anglo American Corporation and of de Beers Consolidated Mines, asserted to the international financial community that it was his view that more investment in South African mines and industry, not less, is the way to promote a better life for blacks and an evolution toward a multi‐racial democracy.

“Those who seek to bring about change in South Africa's racial attitudes and policies by cutting us off from the capital markets of the world should understand clearly that in practice, if not in intent, they are aiming at change by violence,” he said.

During last year, the net outflow of capital that developed after the black riots in Soweto and other black townships in 1976 continued at a debilitating rate. Nearly $900 million in short‐term capital left the country in the first three quarters alone — $80 million more than in the comparable period in 1977. With a net outflow of an additional $300 million in long‐term capital, some of it in the form of loan repayments that had been deferred in the worst of the recession, the total loss to the economy in nine months was well over $1 billion. In 1974, the last boom year, nearly $900 million flowed into the country in the form of investments and loans.

Against that background, the boom in gold prices marked the difference between a slide further into recession and a modest turnaround. 0

Most skilled Rhodesians, such as the mining engineer shown, are white, but many are leaving the country.


REGIONS

JOHANNESBURG WHILE most of the rest of Africa struggles to feed itself, South Africa builds jet fighters, computers and, some say, even nuclear weapons. Yet 100 years after the first strike on a rocky ridge near here, the kingpin of Africa's most sophisticated economy is still gold.

In 1978 with a weak American dollar pushing the price up by $50 an ounce, to $225 at year's end, South Africa reaped a bonanza. Its 35 active gold mines, producing close to 700 tons of the metal, 50 percent of world production, earned more than $4.1 billion, up by more than $1 billion over the record set in 1977.

Although gold accounted for no more than a third of the country's exports in 1978, down from close to half earlier in the decade, it made a major difference to the nation's shaky economic health. Refined into 200‐pound ingots and flown under massive security to Switzerland, which acts as middleman, it made possible a trading surplus of better than $1.6 billion in 1978, another record for a country that historically has run stubstantial trade deficits.

By early this year, economists, encouraged by modest reflationary steps taken by the Government, were predicting a growth‐rate of better than 3 percent in 1979, on top of perhaps 2.5 percent in 1978. Looking further ahead, some analysts hoped that the recovery might gather even a greater pace and end a recessionary period that began in 1974, when a fading gold price and a quadrupling of the country's oil‐import bill put an abrupt halt to the greatest boom since this city was a licentious mining camp.

Among less sanguine observers, the gold boom was seen as the gilded edge of a gathering storm. The most immediate problem was the turmoil in Iran, where the Shah's opponents threatened to force an end to a relationship that has provided South Africa, rich in every strategic resource but oil, with more than 90 percent of the fuel needed to power its industry and transport. Officials are predicting a $350 million jump in the cost of South Africa's oil imports, more than $1.7 billion in 1979, and sharp fuel rationing is expected if the new Iranian Government carries out threats to cut off its oil shipments here.

With an 18‐month oil supply stashed in unused mineshafts around the country and a $3 billion oilfrom‐coal plant scheduled to produce a quarter of the country's needs when it enters full production in the 1980's,.an Iranian oil embargo would not bring the country grinding to a halt. But the loss might prove difficult to make up, if not ultimately impossible, the face of an unofficial boycott that other oil‐producing countries have observed since the Yom Kippur War of 1973‐74 in which South Africa supported Israel against the Arab nations.

At the least, the Iranian upheaval pushed back the prospect of South Africa ever again reaching the rates of growth achieved earlier in the decade, when 7 percent and 8 percent were regarded as normal. Without expansion on that scale, the economy will be unable to provide the jobs and housing required to accommodate a fast‐growing black population, which • has borne the brunt of the economic stagnation of recent years in the form of rising of unemployment and shrinking living standards.

Statistics on the plight of blacks are one of the many things in dispute between the Government and critics of its racial policies. But many reputable economists have estimated black unemployment at 1.5 million or more, in a nation with a formal workforce of 6 million. In black townships like Soweto, outside Johannesburg, the figure translates into rising crime and malnutrition and, most threatening of all for the white minority, a growing resentment against the pol itical and economic structure.

Many analysts believe it may already be too late to reform the system and head off a violent showdown in which black militants ultimately must triumph. But as Harry F. Oppenheimer pointed out when he addressed the International Monetary Fund's conference in Mexico City last year, revolution is likely to become inevitable if the economy cannot generate the wealth needed if a black population of 35 million — nearly double the current figure of 18 million — is to be fed, clothed and housed by the year 2000.

Mr. Oppenheimer, the gold and diamond magnate who is chairman of the Anglo American Corporation and of de Beers Consolidated Mines, asserted to the international financial community that it was his view that more investment in South African mines and industry, not less, is the way to promote a better life for blacks and an evolution toward a multi‐racial democracy.

“Those who seek to bring about change in South Africa's racial attitudes and policies by cutting us off from the capital markets of the world should understand clearly that in practice, if not in intent, they are aiming at change by violence,” he said.

During last year, the net outflow of capital that developed after the black riots in Soweto and other black townships in 1976 continued at a debilitating rate. Nearly $900 million in short‐term capital left the country in the first three quarters alone — $80 million more than in the comparable period in 1977. With a net outflow of an additional $300 million in long‐term capital, some of it in the form of loan repayments that had been deferred in the worst of the recession, the total loss to the economy in nine months was well over $1 billion. In 1974, the last boom year, nearly $900 million flowed into the country in the form of investments and loans.

Against that background, the boom in gold prices marked the difference between a slide further into recession and a modest turnaround. 0

Most skilled Rhodesians, such as the mining engineer shown, are white, but many are leaving the country.


REGIONS

JOHANNESBURG WHILE most of the rest of Africa struggles to feed itself, South Africa builds jet fighters, computers and, some say, even nuclear weapons. Yet 100 years after the first strike on a rocky ridge near here, the kingpin of Africa's most sophisticated economy is still gold.

In 1978 with a weak American dollar pushing the price up by $50 an ounce, to $225 at year's end, South Africa reaped a bonanza. Its 35 active gold mines, producing close to 700 tons of the metal, 50 percent of world production, earned more than $4.1 billion, up by more than $1 billion over the record set in 1977.

Although gold accounted for no more than a third of the country's exports in 1978, down from close to half earlier in the decade, it made a major difference to the nation's shaky economic health. Refined into 200‐pound ingots and flown under massive security to Switzerland, which acts as middleman, it made possible a trading surplus of better than $1.6 billion in 1978, another record for a country that historically has run stubstantial trade deficits.

By early this year, economists, encouraged by modest reflationary steps taken by the Government, were predicting a growth‐rate of better than 3 percent in 1979, on top of perhaps 2.5 percent in 1978. Looking further ahead, some analysts hoped that the recovery might gather even a greater pace and end a recessionary period that began in 1974, when a fading gold price and a quadrupling of the country's oil‐import bill put an abrupt halt to the greatest boom since this city was a licentious mining camp.

Among less sanguine observers, the gold boom was seen as the gilded edge of a gathering storm. The most immediate problem was the turmoil in Iran, where the Shah's opponents threatened to force an end to a relationship that has provided South Africa, rich in every strategic resource but oil, with more than 90 percent of the fuel needed to power its industry and transport. Officials are predicting a $350 million jump in the cost of South Africa's oil imports, more than $1.7 billion in 1979, and sharp fuel rationing is expected if the new Iranian Government carries out threats to cut off its oil shipments here.

With an 18‐month oil supply stashed in unused mineshafts around the country and a $3 billion oilfrom‐coal plant scheduled to produce a quarter of the country's needs when it enters full production in the 1980's,.an Iranian oil embargo would not bring the country grinding to a halt. But the loss might prove difficult to make up, if not ultimately impossible, the face of an unofficial boycott that other oil‐producing countries have observed since the Yom Kippur War of 1973‐74 in which South Africa supported Israel against the Arab nations.

At the least, the Iranian upheaval pushed back the prospect of South Africa ever again reaching the rates of growth achieved earlier in the decade, when 7 percent and 8 percent were regarded as normal. Without expansion on that scale, the economy will be unable to provide the jobs and housing required to accommodate a fast‐growing black population, which • has borne the brunt of the economic stagnation of recent years in the form of rising of unemployment and shrinking living standards.

Statistics on the plight of blacks are one of the many things in dispute between the Government and critics of its racial policies. But many reputable economists have estimated black unemployment at 1.5 million or more, in a nation with a formal workforce of 6 million. In black townships like Soweto, outside Johannesburg, the figure translates into rising crime and malnutrition and, most threatening of all for the white minority, a growing resentment against the pol itical and economic structure.

Many analysts believe it may already be too late to reform the system and head off a violent showdown in which black militants ultimately must triumph. But as Harry F. Oppenheimer pointed out when he addressed the International Monetary Fund's conference in Mexico City last year, revolution is likely to become inevitable if the economy cannot generate the wealth needed if a black population of 35 million — nearly double the current figure of 18 million — is to be fed, clothed and housed by the year 2000.

Mr. Oppenheimer, the gold and diamond magnate who is chairman of the Anglo American Corporation and of de Beers Consolidated Mines, asserted to the international financial community that it was his view that more investment in South African mines and industry, not less, is the way to promote a better life for blacks and an evolution toward a multi‐racial democracy.

“Those who seek to bring about change in South Africa's racial attitudes and policies by cutting us off from the capital markets of the world should understand clearly that in practice, if not in intent, they are aiming at change by violence,” he said.

During last year, the net outflow of capital that developed after the black riots in Soweto and other black townships in 1976 continued at a debilitating rate. Nearly $900 million in short‐term capital left the country in the first three quarters alone — $80 million more than in the comparable period in 1977. With a net outflow of an additional $300 million in long‐term capital, some of it in the form of loan repayments that had been deferred in the worst of the recession, the total loss to the economy in nine months was well over $1 billion. In 1974, the last boom year, nearly $900 million flowed into the country in the form of investments and loans.

Against that background, the boom in gold prices marked the difference between a slide further into recession and a modest turnaround. 0

Most skilled Rhodesians, such as the mining engineer shown, are white, but many are leaving the country.


REGIONS

JOHANNESBURG WHILE most of the rest of Africa struggles to feed itself, South Africa builds jet fighters, computers and, some say, even nuclear weapons. Yet 100 years after the first strike on a rocky ridge near here, the kingpin of Africa's most sophisticated economy is still gold.

In 1978 with a weak American dollar pushing the price up by $50 an ounce, to $225 at year's end, South Africa reaped a bonanza. Its 35 active gold mines, producing close to 700 tons of the metal, 50 percent of world production, earned more than $4.1 billion, up by more than $1 billion over the record set in 1977.

Although gold accounted for no more than a third of the country's exports in 1978, down from close to half earlier in the decade, it made a major difference to the nation's shaky economic health. Refined into 200‐pound ingots and flown under massive security to Switzerland, which acts as middleman, it made possible a trading surplus of better than $1.6 billion in 1978, another record for a country that historically has run stubstantial trade deficits.

By early this year, economists, encouraged by modest reflationary steps taken by the Government, were predicting a growth‐rate of better than 3 percent in 1979, on top of perhaps 2.5 percent in 1978. Looking further ahead, some analysts hoped that the recovery might gather even a greater pace and end a recessionary period that began in 1974, when a fading gold price and a quadrupling of the country's oil‐import bill put an abrupt halt to the greatest boom since this city was a licentious mining camp.

Among less sanguine observers, the gold boom was seen as the gilded edge of a gathering storm. The most immediate problem was the turmoil in Iran, where the Shah's opponents threatened to force an end to a relationship that has provided South Africa, rich in every strategic resource but oil, with more than 90 percent of the fuel needed to power its industry and transport. Officials are predicting a $350 million jump in the cost of South Africa's oil imports, more than $1.7 billion in 1979, and sharp fuel rationing is expected if the new Iranian Government carries out threats to cut off its oil shipments here.

With an 18‐month oil supply stashed in unused mineshafts around the country and a $3 billion oilfrom‐coal plant scheduled to produce a quarter of the country's needs when it enters full production in the 1980's,.an Iranian oil embargo would not bring the country grinding to a halt. But the loss might prove difficult to make up, if not ultimately impossible, the face of an unofficial boycott that other oil‐producing countries have observed since the Yom Kippur War of 1973‐74 in which South Africa supported Israel against the Arab nations.

At the least, the Iranian upheaval pushed back the prospect of South Africa ever again reaching the rates of growth achieved earlier in the decade, when 7 percent and 8 percent were regarded as normal. Without expansion on that scale, the economy will be unable to provide the jobs and housing required to accommodate a fast‐growing black population, which • has borne the brunt of the economic stagnation of recent years in the form of rising of unemployment and shrinking living standards.

Statistics on the plight of blacks are one of the many things in dispute between the Government and critics of its racial policies. But many reputable economists have estimated black unemployment at 1.5 million or more, in a nation with a formal workforce of 6 million. In black townships like Soweto, outside Johannesburg, the figure translates into rising crime and malnutrition and, most threatening of all for the white minority, a growing resentment against the pol itical and economic structure.

Many analysts believe it may already be too late to reform the system and head off a violent showdown in which black militants ultimately must triumph. But as Harry F. Oppenheimer pointed out when he addressed the International Monetary Fund's conference in Mexico City last year, revolution is likely to become inevitable if the economy cannot generate the wealth needed if a black population of 35 million — nearly double the current figure of 18 million — is to be fed, clothed and housed by the year 2000.

Mr. Oppenheimer, the gold and diamond magnate who is chairman of the Anglo American Corporation and of de Beers Consolidated Mines, asserted to the international financial community that it was his view that more investment in South African mines and industry, not less, is the way to promote a better life for blacks and an evolution toward a multi‐racial democracy.

“Those who seek to bring about change in South Africa's racial attitudes and policies by cutting us off from the capital markets of the world should understand clearly that in practice, if not in intent, they are aiming at change by violence,” he said.

During last year, the net outflow of capital that developed after the black riots in Soweto and other black townships in 1976 continued at a debilitating rate. Nearly $900 million in short‐term capital left the country in the first three quarters alone — $80 million more than in the comparable period in 1977. With a net outflow of an additional $300 million in long‐term capital, some of it in the form of loan repayments that had been deferred in the worst of the recession, the total loss to the economy in nine months was well over $1 billion. In 1974, the last boom year, nearly $900 million flowed into the country in the form of investments and loans.

Against that background, the boom in gold prices marked the difference between a slide further into recession and a modest turnaround. 0

Most skilled Rhodesians, such as the mining engineer shown, are white, but many are leaving the country.


REGIONS

JOHANNESBURG WHILE most of the rest of Africa struggles to feed itself, South Africa builds jet fighters, computers and, some say, even nuclear weapons. Yet 100 years after the first strike on a rocky ridge near here, the kingpin of Africa's most sophisticated economy is still gold.

In 1978 with a weak American dollar pushing the price up by $50 an ounce, to $225 at year's end, South Africa reaped a bonanza. Its 35 active gold mines, producing close to 700 tons of the metal, 50 percent of world production, earned more than $4.1 billion, up by more than $1 billion over the record set in 1977.

Although gold accounted for no more than a third of the country's exports in 1978, down from close to half earlier in the decade, it made a major difference to the nation's shaky economic health. Refined into 200‐pound ingots and flown under massive security to Switzerland, which acts as middleman, it made possible a trading surplus of better than $1.6 billion in 1978, another record for a country that historically has run stubstantial trade deficits.

By early this year, economists, encouraged by modest reflationary steps taken by the Government, were predicting a growth‐rate of better than 3 percent in 1979, on top of perhaps 2.5 percent in 1978. Looking further ahead, some analysts hoped that the recovery might gather even a greater pace and end a recessionary period that began in 1974, when a fading gold price and a quadrupling of the country's oil‐import bill put an abrupt halt to the greatest boom since this city was a licentious mining camp.

Among less sanguine observers, the gold boom was seen as the gilded edge of a gathering storm. The most immediate problem was the turmoil in Iran, where the Shah's opponents threatened to force an end to a relationship that has provided South Africa, rich in every strategic resource but oil, with more than 90 percent of the fuel needed to power its industry and transport. Officials are predicting a $350 million jump in the cost of South Africa's oil imports, more than $1.7 billion in 1979, and sharp fuel rationing is expected if the new Iranian Government carries out threats to cut off its oil shipments here.

With an 18‐month oil supply stashed in unused mineshafts around the country and a $3 billion oilfrom‐coal plant scheduled to produce a quarter of the country's needs when it enters full production in the 1980's,.an Iranian oil embargo would not bring the country grinding to a halt. But the loss might prove difficult to make up, if not ultimately impossible, the face of an unofficial boycott that other oil‐producing countries have observed since the Yom Kippur War of 1973‐74 in which South Africa supported Israel against the Arab nations.

At the least, the Iranian upheaval pushed back the prospect of South Africa ever again reaching the rates of growth achieved earlier in the decade, when 7 percent and 8 percent were regarded as normal. Without expansion on that scale, the economy will be unable to provide the jobs and housing required to accommodate a fast‐growing black population, which • has borne the brunt of the economic stagnation of recent years in the form of rising of unemployment and shrinking living standards.

Statistics on the plight of blacks are one of the many things in dispute between the Government and critics of its racial policies. But many reputable economists have estimated black unemployment at 1.5 million or more, in a nation with a formal workforce of 6 million. In black townships like Soweto, outside Johannesburg, the figure translates into rising crime and malnutrition and, most threatening of all for the white minority, a growing resentment against the pol itical and economic structure.

Many analysts believe it may already be too late to reform the system and head off a violent showdown in which black militants ultimately must triumph. But as Harry F. Oppenheimer pointed out when he addressed the International Monetary Fund's conference in Mexico City last year, revolution is likely to become inevitable if the economy cannot generate the wealth needed if a black population of 35 million — nearly double the current figure of 18 million — is to be fed, clothed and housed by the year 2000.

Mr. Oppenheimer, the gold and diamond magnate who is chairman of the Anglo American Corporation and of de Beers Consolidated Mines, asserted to the international financial community that it was his view that more investment in South African mines and industry, not less, is the way to promote a better life for blacks and an evolution toward a multi‐racial democracy.

“Those who seek to bring about change in South Africa's racial attitudes and policies by cutting us off from the capital markets of the world should understand clearly that in practice, if not in intent, they are aiming at change by violence,” he said.

During last year, the net outflow of capital that developed after the black riots in Soweto and other black townships in 1976 continued at a debilitating rate. Nearly $900 million in short‐term capital left the country in the first three quarters alone — $80 million more than in the comparable period in 1977. With a net outflow of an additional $300 million in long‐term capital, some of it in the form of loan repayments that had been deferred in the worst of the recession, the total loss to the economy in nine months was well over $1 billion. In 1974, the last boom year, nearly $900 million flowed into the country in the form of investments and loans.

Against that background, the boom in gold prices marked the difference between a slide further into recession and a modest turnaround. 0

Most skilled Rhodesians, such as the mining engineer shown, are white, but many are leaving the country.